Rightsizing – If you’re thinking about buying a home in St. Louis—whether to downsize into a more manageable space or move up to a home that better suits your needs—you’ve likely encountered conflicting reports about the housing market. Some headlines say there aren’t enough homes for sale, while others claim there’s a growing surplus. If you’ve been house hunting, you might have experienced this first-hand—homes in the rightsize and price range disappearing before you can even schedule a showing. So, what’s really happening, and how does it affect your next move?
The Headlines Seem Confusing—But Both Can Be True
Recent news stories paint two very different pictures of the market:
- One report highlights that homebuilders have the highest number of unsold new homes since 2009.
- Another claims that a lack of inventory—not rising interest rates—is the biggest challenge for buyers today.
So, are there too many homes on the market, or not enough? The reality is that both statements can be true at the same time, depending on where you’re looking and what type of home you want. This is especially relevant for homeowners looking to rightsize—whether you’re downsizing to reduce maintenance and expenses or moving up to gain more space for a growing household.
Why the Market Feels So Unbalanced
New home construction and existing home inventory are two separate factors affecting the St. Louis housing market:
- Builders do have a backlog of unsold new homes. However, many of these homes are larger, higher-priced properties that may not align with the needs of those looking to downsize or upsize within a budget.
- Existing home inventory remains low. Many St. Louis homeowners with desirable mid-sized homes are hesitant to sell because they locked in historically low mortgage rates and don’t want to trade them for today’s higher rates.
- Certain price points are more competitive. Homes in the starter and mid-range markets—ideal for those moving up or rightsizing—tend to sell quickly due to strong demand.
This creates a market where buyers looking to rightsize may find that while there are plenty of large, high-end new homes available, the perfect fit for their next chapter—whether that’s a single-story villa, low-maintenance townhome, or spacious family home—may be harder to find.
Why Your Local Market Matters More Than National Headlines
Real estate isn’t just local—it’s hyperlocal. The situation varies dramatically depending on location and price range, especially in the diverse St. Louis market:
- In some areas, new home construction has surged, creating more inventory and opportunities for buyers. If you’re upsizing, you may find attractive incentives on new builds in growing suburbs like O’Fallon, St. Charles, or Wentzville.
- In historic or established neighborhoods, the inventory of smaller, well-maintained homes may be limited. If you’re downsizing, popular areas like Kirkwood, Webster Groves, or parts of South County may require a more strategic approach to finding the rightsized home.
- The balance of supply and demand varies by subdivision. In some communities, homeowners are staying put, limiting availability, while in others, builders are actively seeking buyers for brand-new homes.
According to the National Association of Realtors, 4.38 million homes were sold in 2024. Of those, only about 16% were new construction. While builders have increased their output, the number of available homes is still far from meeting overall buyer demand, particularly in key price points that appeal to rightsizing buyers.
What St. Louis Buyers Should Do Next
Rather than getting caught up in confusing national trends, buyers looking to rightsize should focus on their specific needs and the realities of the local market. Here’s how to approach your home search effectively:
- Work with a knowledgeable local real estate agent. An experienced agent specializing in rightsizing can help you understand which St. Louis neighborhoods or developments align with your lifestyle goals.
- Explore new construction options if they fit your needs. If builders in your area have unsold inventory, you may have more room to negotiate a better deal—whether it’s closing cost assistance, upgraded features, or a lower price.
- Consider timing and strategy. If you’re downsizing, your existing home may sell quickly, so having a plan for your next move is key. If you’re moving up, be prepared for competition in mid-range price points.
- Look for off-market opportunities. Some of the best rightsizing homes never hit the open market, but a well-connected agent can help you find options before they’re widely available.
The Bottom Line
National real estate news can be overwhelming, but the real story is what’s happening in the St. Louis market. If you’re considering downsizing or moving up, the best first step is to talk with a real estate agent who understands the unique challenges and opportunities of rightsizing.
Whether you’re looking for a brand-new, low-maintenance home or searching for that perfect family-friendly neighborhood, expert guidance can make all the difference. The market may be shifting, but with the right strategy, you can find the right home to fit your next stage of life.
